# Logit vs. LPM Comparison: Crisis Prediction

| Variable | Banking (LPM) | Banking (Logit) | Any Crisis (LPM) | Any Crisis (Logit) | CA Reversal (LPM) | CA Reversal (Logit) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | -0.1589** | -0.1339** | -0.1794 | -0.0953 | -0.5539** | -0.6023*** |
| | (0.0701) | (0.0532) | (0.1147) | (0.0813) | (0.2339) | (0.2172) |
| Z_2 | 0.0216** | 0.0175** | 0.0230 | 0.0093 | 0.0984*** | 0.1062*** |
| | (0.0105) | (0.0078) | (0.0172) | (0.0122) | (0.0351) | (0.0328) |
| Z_3 | -0.0008* | -0.0006* | -0.0008 | -0.0002 | -0.0046*** | -0.0049*** |
| | (0.0004) | (0.0003) | (0.0007) | (0.0005) | (0.0014) | (0.0013) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | -0.0002 | -0.0001 | -0.0004 | -0.0002 | -0.0033*** | -0.0025*** |
| | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0005) | (0.0004) | (0.0010) | (0.0009) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | -0.0007 | -0.0012 | -0.0018 | -0.0035* | 0.0224*** | 0.0146*** |
| | (0.0015) | (0.0013) | (0.0024) | (0.0020) | (0.0049) | (0.0040) |
| rgdp_growth | -0.0010*** | -0.0008*** | -0.0028*** | -0.0021*** | -0.0019** | -0.0015* |
| | (0.0003) | (0.0002) | (0.0004) | (0.0003) | (0.0009) | (0.0008) |
| kaopen | -0.0016 | -0.0015 | -0.0106*** | -0.0096*** | 0.0005 | -0.0008 |
| | (0.0012) | (0.0010) | (0.0020) | (0.0016) | (0.0040) | (0.0037) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 5489 | 5489 | 5489 | 5489 | 5489 | 5489 |
| R² | 0.0080 | 0.0596 | 0.0198 | 0.0734 | 0.0285 | 0.0323 |
| Countries | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 |

*Standard errors in parentheses. Logit columns report marginal effects at means.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*